Promising sockeye run looks unlikely to repeat 2009 forecast failure

Brian Lewis
July 20, 2010
The Province

It’s beginning to look as if this season’s spawning sockeye salmon runs up the Fraser River may not repeat last year’s disaster.

That’s when official forecasts called for a total return of over 10 million fish, but subsequently less than two million of this highly valued fish actually returned from the Pacific Ocean.

And since 2009 marked the worst in a number of years of declining returns, it was enough to prod Ottawa to turn its attention westward and establish the Cohen Inquiry into the Fraser’s vanishing sockeye.

But when this judicial inquiry begins formal hearings this fall, it may be against a backdrop of a much-improved Fraser sockeye return.

Early estimates for the total 2010 return call for seven to 11 million sockeye to migrate up the Fraser, and several external factors are giving rise to increased optimism.

First of all, the Early Stuart run, which begins the season now, appears better than expected.

Although downgraded slightly in the Pacific Salmon Commission’s weekly forecasts last Tuesday, the estimate now stands at about 90,000 returns, compared to a preseason estimate for about 41,000 fish.

Read the full story in The Province

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• Westcoaster; August 3, 2010; "Sockeye Fishery Split"

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